This week we return to the chart “US energy consumption by source and sector 2022” produced annually by the Energy Information Administration and published in June based on previous year data. To remind that on the left the chart shows all sources of energy (in terms of Quadrillion British thermal units Btus) used in the US economy during the recorded year. On the right the chart shows where that energy is consumed by major sectors of the economy: commercial, residential, industrial and transportation. The box in the lower middle shows how much of the primary energy was converted to electricity for delivery to the sectors. It also shows conversions “losses”.

Last week I focused on the transportation sector and how much energy would need to be converted to electricity to replace petroleum as the main transportation fuel. My conclusion was that the electric grid would need to double energy production again during the next 40 years from 2023 to 2063.

According to Dr, Glenn A. Ducat decarbonizing the existing grid with renewable wind and solar would require 4.7 billion residential sized solar panels or 287,000 medium sized wind turbines (2.5 Mwe per unit at 24% capacity factor). [i] To decarbonize existing electric production and add transportation, double those figures.

Turning to natural gas, a quick calculation from the EIA chart shows that about 21 quadrillion BTU is used by the industrial, commercial, and residential sectors. According to the EIA about 2/3 of natural gas production or 14 quads is used for heat and power with the remaining third of natural gas going to chemical and agricultural uses.

When replacing fossil-fuel burning equipment with electric equivalent Ducat observes that “…most fossil-fuel burning equipment is at least twice as efficient as their electric alternative…” [ii]If this is true for most uses then replacing 14 quads of delivered natural gas may require 28 quads of delivered electricity and generation.

This is twice the electricity delivered in 2022 for all uses.

Thus, to replace fossil fuels for transportation and in fossil fuel burning equipment in the industrial, commercial, and residential sectors may require expanding electric generation, with non-carbon emitting energy sources, in the next 40 years by a factor of four!

Dr. Glenn A. Ducat reaches a similar conclusion but expresses it in terms of the need to deploy in the USA:

“Over 20 bullion residential size solar panels

Or

1.3 million medium size wind turbines

Or

1,180 large nuclear power plants”[iii]

Next we’ll lost at cost.

[i] Ducat, Glenn A, Blue Oasis No More, Glenn Ducat 2022

[ii] IBID

[iii] IBID