Politika Published April 3, 2024
Interview: Branko Terzic Washington Expert On National and International Politics
Interview: Branko Terzic Washington Expert On National and International Politics
Politika Published April 3, 2024
Special for “Politika”
Washington: As Joseph Biden and Donad Trump have collected enough delegates to by nominated as the presidential candidates of their parties, the Democrat and Republican Parties this summer will confirm their nominations and then announce the names of their vice-presidential choices says Branko Terzic, Washington expert on American national and international politics.
Q. Now that both Joseph Biden and Donald Trump have acquired enough delegates to be nominated by their respective political parties, what will be their campaign objectives during the next few months?
A. The Democrat and Republican Party conventions will be held this summer. The two candidates will be confirmed at that time and each candidate will announce his vice-presidential selection.
During the next few months up to the time of the conventions the public may see little campaigning other than selected travel and speeches by both candidates.
The two presidential committees will spend most of the time in the next few months raising funds, hiring staff, and preparing campaign strategies and plans for every state. Biden and Trump have campaigned against each other in 2020 That means there is a significant amount of data on voters and voting patterns. The campaign strategists and analysts will be studying this data based on the US’s unique system of electing a president based on votes from the Electoral College. The two campaigns will also use this time to identify surrogate speakers who can appear effectively on behalf of the candidates in key districts.
Q. How do the campaigns change after the Republican Party and Democrat Party conventions confirm Donald Trump and Joseph Biden and their running rates as candidates for President and Vice President?
A. During the critical September and October period, before the November 5, 2024 election, both campaigns will move into full operation. Important activities will include; identifying voters most likely to support their candidate and then getting those voters to the polling places, directing the candidate’s campaign appearances to important locations to maximize media coverage, and deciding where to spend the hundreds of millions in paid advertising in print advertisements, TV and radio and the newly important internet social media platforms.
Meanwhile, independent political committees, such as “super” Political Action Committees (PAC) can raise unlimited funds but cannot collaborate directly with the Presidential candidates they favor. This means the public will see advertisements supporting candidates produced by the candidate’s own committees and also see advertisements produced and paid for by these “Super PACs”.
Q. What risks do Joe Biden and Donald Trump face between now and the summer conventions?
A. For President Biden the main risks are a public misstep in foreign or domestic policy during the next few months. In this regard there are numerous foreign policy issues facing the president including those involving Russia, Israel, China, and Iran. Biden’s main domestic crisis is the inability to stop illegal immigration across the Border with Mexico as well as his low leadership rating by voters in national polls.
For former President Donald Trump the main risks are adverse rulings in any of the numerous legal proceedings in state and federal courts. Some observers also point to Trumps occasional outbursts during speeches which have generated unnecessary controversy especially as he has a slight lead in recent national polls.
Q. As this is Donald Trump’s third campaign for the presidency what does he need to do to win?
A. Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in 2016 by winning 306 electoral votes compared to her 232 votes. That year Clinton won the popular vote winning 48.0% of voters compared to Trump’s 45.9%. Joseph Biden won 306 electoral college votes in 2020 compared to Trumps 232 votes. Biden also won the popular vote 51,3% compared to Trump’s 46.8%. To win in 2024 Trump needs to switch 38 electoral college votes. This could be done with only three states, for example Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin which voted for Biden in 2016, switching to Trump in 2024.
One unknown factor in 2024 is the potential impact of the candidacy of the independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Democrat and Independent voters. A January 2024 Gallup poll reported that 43% of voters identified as “independents” compared to a record low 27% identifying as Democrats and 27% as Republicans. Most observers agree that Kennedy, from the famous US political dynasty of John F. Kennedy and Robert F. Kennedy, will attract voters from the independent and from Democrats. How much that will affect Biden’s vote is uncertain.
The Honorable Branko Terzic is a former Commissioner on the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and State of Wisconsin Public Service Commission, in addition he served as Chairman of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe ( UNECE) Ad Hoc Group of Experts on Cleaner Electricity. He hold a BS Engineering and honorary Doctor of Sciences in Engineering (h.c.) both from the University of Wisconsin- Milwaukee.
#BrankoTerzic #energy #regulations #experience #research #future #opportunity #strategy #management #people #politics #trump #news #conservative #republican #usa #election #america #congress #vote #democrat #liberal #freedom #democrats #government #biden #political